Could this finally be the year?

Sixteen games to go. We are now two thirds of the way into the season, and things are beginning to get that little bit more exciting. Each dropped point seems all the more tragic, and each win feels that bit bigger. The January transfer window has closed, fans of every club know who they managed to sign and who they managed to keep in their squads. For Forest, 2014 has proved to be a success so far, with the signing of Rafik Djebbour, the return of Jack Hobbs, and perhaps most significantly, Karl Darlow and Jamaal Lascelles were not sold. The sudden emergence of Jamie Paterson has been nothing short of outstanding, as highlighted in Tuesday night's 3-0 win at Huddersfield, but what can this squad achieve? Although Forest are still 5th after a staggering 16 matches unbeaten in all competitions, there is much to indicate that the best is yet to come. Some comparisons with previous seasons will offer some confirmation to the optimists within the fan base.

Only a few months ago, the main aim for the season seemed simple - secure a play off place and anything else is a bonus. The injury time heartbreak served so coldly by Anthony Knockaert last May will remind anybody how crucial a play off place would be, even if it isn't the glamorous prize of automatic promotion. Last season, after 30 games, Forest were lingering in 11th place and were about to lose to second bottom Bristol City 2-0. 6 points off the play offs, and short of any confidence after two managerial changes, there was certainly nowhere near the amount of belief that there is this time around. Compare that to this season, as Forest sit in 5th on 54 points, 8 points clear of 7th placed Brighton.

Billy Davies' return initially prompted a powerful resurgence, winning 6 and drawing 1 of his first seven games back, but a disappointing 1 win in the last 8 matches subsequently led to a painful 8th place finish, just 1 point short of the coveted 6th spot. In those 15 matches, Forest averaged 1.63 points per game. Repeating that over 15 matches meant that what was a 6 point gap in February was just a 1 point gap at the season's end. 

This season, Forest so far average 1.8 points per game - better than the last 15 games of last season, and certainly better than the first 30 games, which returned an average of 1.3 points per game. Although last season's league table was exceptionally flat, there are still a number of reasons why this improved points tally has to be a promising statistic. Firstly, the squad is radically different this season. Karl Darlow is now a comfortable number 1 goalkeeper, and no longer a rookie with potential. The same can be said about Jamaal Lascelles, who was hardly in the picture at the back end of the 2012/13 campaign. The defence has tightened up, with only 30 goals conceded so far, compared to the 42 that had been conceded at this point last season. The attack is also 10 goals better off than it was at this point last season (Forest currently rank as the third highest scorers in the Championship with 50 goals). With 4 more wins, 5 fewer losses, and a goal difference 22 higher than this time last season, the improvement is clear to see. 

Davies constantly refers to his injured players, and although this can often come across as an irritating excuse for dropped points, it is hard to deny his point. With injuries to Lansbury, Wilson, Cohen, Vaughan and Lichaj, he is unable to call upon 5 players who would almost certainly make his starting XI. Lansbury Cohen and Lichaj all started against Derby County in the game that would pinpoint what Forest's strongest XI is, and this was with Wilson already injured, and Vaughan yet to arrive on loan. Similarly, Cohen, Vaughan and Lansbury all started in the away win at Leicester City, with Lichaj also coming on in that game. 

Although it would be unreasonable to point to the loss of Dexter Blackstock as a meaningful reason to explain the dropping of points, it is true that Forest lack a large percentage of what would be Davies' preferred starting XI. No other club in the top 6 has suffered misfortune to that degree, but there is no guarantee that that will remain the same. We are yet to discover what Burnley would be like without Danny Ings for three months, or how Derby would manage without Craig Bryson for that period of time, let alone the loss of 5 crucial players. It is a credit to Forest that with such a large chunk of key players missing, such a strong challenge is being made to reach those top two positions

No two seasons are the same, but it is a promising fact that in the last 3 seasons, two clubs that have gone on to finish second have been in a very similar position after 30 games to the one Forest currently find themselves in. In 2010/11, Norwich City were on 54 points after 31 games, and finished second. Forest boast that return after a game less. Similarly last season Hull City had 53 points after 30 games, a point less than Forest have now. Admittedly there was not a 5 point gap for them to overturn, but with 16 games to play, 5 points seems very little to be intimidated by. If Forest can even turn that 1.8 points per game into 2 points per game over the last 16 matches, it will result in an 86 point finish, which in 2 of the last 3 seasons has been enough to clinch second position. 

It does seem that after so many years of crushing disappointment, this really could be the best shot Forest have had of returning to the Premier League since the relegation of 1999. It isn't just the stats that offer hope, but the squad itself. Very few would deny that the current squad is noticeably superior to the side which finished 3rd in 2009/10, and man for man Forest are now a lot stronger, with the luxury of being able to cope with injuries. The bitterly disappointing collapse in form that so often happens at the latter stages of Forest's seasons over the years could well be avoided this time. Players are coming back, with Kelvin Wilson and Eric Lichaj reportedly just 3 weeks away from returning to first team action. With everything just seeming to click at long last, it certainly is an exciting time to be a Forest fan.

And long may it continue 

January - The importance of Plan B

The January transfer window has finally opened, and as expected Forest have already been linked with a vast number of players in numerous positions. It's clear to everybody who has seen Forest play this season that the all important 'missing piece of the jigsaw' is a clinical striker. There are six strikers already at the club who, for whatever reason, have all been struggling to get that bit of consistency needed to reach the "20 goal a season" mark that seems so integral to any club wanting to achieve promotion. Although it is always nice to see a Forest player blossom into a confident goalscorer, patience is wearing thin and if this season is to be a memorable one, which it certainly has the potential to be, the time is right to invest in a striker who will do the one thing that Forest have failed to do this season - convert chances. Billy Davies has hinted that he will be considerably backed this January, but what are the best pieces of business Forest could do? Let's consider some of the options.

Unfortunately, there is no margin for error this time around. In the past Forest have been notorious for chasing players of undoubted quality for so long that they've been left empty handed when the transfer failed to materialise. Fans have almost come to expect disappointment on deadline day. If nothing has been sorted out earlier on in the window, and in a season that Forest lie in the play offs, 4 points clear of 7th place, it would be a terrible shame to see that happen again. This time, Forest need a plan B. Not only that - they also need to be actively pursuing these players early on. Unfortunately, I'm not in charge of transfer dealings this January, but if I was, these are four players I would be keeping a close eye on:




ADAM LE FONDRE, Reading

Perhaps it's unsurprising that he has already been linked to Forest after his comments on New Year's Day about seeing his future elsewhere, but Le Fondre would certainly fit the bill. He managed 12 Premier League goals for Reading last season, which surpasses what our own leading goalscorer Billy Sharp managed in the Championship in the same season. What makes this even more impressive is that many of these goals came from the bench. He won the Premier League Player of the Month award in January 2013, but has found himself struggling to get regular game time at Reading this season. At the age of 27, he has an impressive career goal tally, with 141 league goals in 346 games. That's an average of over 0.4 goals per game. Although the majority of these were in the lower leagues, he has since proved that he can also do it in the Championship and even the Premier League. This season alone he has 7 goals to his name, which puts him level with our own top goalscorer's tally for the season. Unlike Rhodes, this transfer would not require a huge fee or monstrous wages, and with his publicly stated desire to play regular football, he may well be interested in moving. I see this as being the best 'Plan B' option, if not one of the best options full stop.




DAVID NUGENT, Leicester City

Another player already linked with Forest, Nugent is also consistently reaching a respectable goal tally. With 12 league goals this season, he is proving to be far more clinical than anybody we already have, and which makes him the joint 4th highest scorer in the league, ahead of Charlie Austin who came so close to joining Forest in the summer. With 16 goals last season and 16 the season before, it appears that Nugent will score just over 1 in every 3 games, although many of these goals have been penalties. One of the reasons that Nugent has been, and continues to be, linked to Forest is that he is one of a long list of Leicester players whose contracts run out in the summer. From this month, he has the right to talk to other clubs and he may well be tempted by a move to a fellow promotion hopeful in Forest. Although he wouldn't be the big name signing many fans may be hoping for, he would certainly be a nuisance in the box, and would almost certainly put away a higher percentage of chances than the current Forest strikers do. The last time any Forest striker got more than 16 in a season was in 2009/10 when Rob Earnshaw got 17, and Nugent looks more than likely to have smashed that total by May. I would rank Nugent as the 2nd best 'Plan B' option after Le Fondre




CALLUM WILSON, Coventry City

Unlike Le Fondre and Nugent, Wilson is completely untested at Championship level, but has been free scoring for Coventry in a very difficult season for the club (14 goals in 23 appearances). At just 21, his entire career is ahead of him, and it won't be long until a bigger club snaps him up. With Coventry in such a terrible financial mess, it could be a fantastic bit of business. Admittedly a risk, Wilson would be thrown in at the deep end if he was expected to lead us to promotion, but in recent seasons several prolific lower league goal scorers have gone on to be successful in the Championship. Le Fondre spent a large chunk of his career with Rochdale and Rotherham, Grant Holt kick started his career in impressive fashion with Shrewsbury and then Norwich, and Rickie Lambert moved up the leagues with remarkable ease. Wilson has been leading the Coventry line with Leon Clarke, and together they have managed 29 league goals. But at such a young age, it seems that Wilson has the potential to hack it at a higher level. Joint second highest goalscorer in League One, only behind his own teammate Clarke, Wilson would certainly be the riskiest of the lot, but with the relatively small fee Coventry may settle for, it seems like a risk worth taking.




KRIS BOYD, Kilmarnock

Perhaps a surprising choice, but one that could certainly work. Boyd's brief loan spell under Davies at the City Ground in the latter stages of the 2010/11 season was more successful than many predicted, with 6 goals in 10 league appearances. With Davies now back in charge, and looking for a striker, Boyd may well be in his thoughts. He's currently the second top goalscorer in the SPL with 12 goals in 19 appearances, and his stats at Rangers were even better, with an incredible 101 goals in 143 league games. Many may take these statistics with a pinch of salt because of the lack of quality in the SPL, but his previous spell at Forest shows that he has the ability to be that '1 in 2' striker. If this could be repeated in the second half of the season, it could be a very shrewd bit of business from Davies. Kilmarnock will be reluctant to part with their talisman but it seems likely that Forest can afford whatever they ask for. Many capable strikers seem to fade away as soon as they join Forest, yet Boyd is one striker who appeared to fit in straight away. He actually gained confidence from being here. It's a move seriously worth considering.




It doesn't necessarily take the signing of Jordan Rhodes, Shane Long or Danny Ings to get us promoted. In fact, it may be better to actively pursue players who won't cost the kind of money they would involve. At the end of the season, if Forest haven't been promoted, we are in serious danger of being hit with a transfer embargo or any number of other punishments for failing to keep in line with FFP regulations. Perhaps it is the time to start spending sensibly, and acting on stats rather than chasing big names. Let's hope that Billy and Fawaz get together and make some wise decisions this January, and that we can finally fit that last piece into the jigsaw.